))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
D
D
E
E
=
Financial equilibrium of a company implies that effective demand of the company
for money at every moment t of the period under consideration [0; T] must be satisfied.
Let us name the amount of money that is available for a company in each period
of time t for its satisfaction of effective demand for money by the accepted supply for
money S (t) of a company.
The level of the accepted supply is determined by the vector of financial policy of
a company, parameters of economic development and the state of external
environment:
))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
S
S
=
In this context, the categories of effective demand and accepted supply for money
are interpreted as monetary reserves, the balanced dynamics of which determines the
possibility of a company to achieve the regime of financial equilibrium. If the
company’s effective demand for money substantially exceeds its accepted supply
during set period, this disequilibrium state can be the internal source of liquidity crisis
that can destabilize the firm. It could be one of the Early Warning Signals of risk.
We will name the magnitude of misbalance between effective demand and
accepted supply for money in the moment of time t as the internal potential of firm’s
financial destabilization (U (t)):
U (t) =
))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
D
E
-
))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
S
If the internal potential of financial destabilization of firm is more than 0, that is
U (t) =
))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
D
E
-
))
(
),
(
)),
(
),
(
,
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
l
t
z
t
t
S
0
,
then effective demand for money is dissatisfied, and there are pre-conditions of
liquidity crisis. The negative potential of financial destabilization is the evidence of
money surplus over the necessary reserve that shows ineffective financial policy of a
firm and losses of profitability. Such financial policy can result into negative situation
in relation to liquidity in future.
The dynamics of internal potential of financial destabilization can be described
by differential equation:
)
(
),
(
,
(
)
(
),
(
,
(
)
(
))
(
),
(
,
(
t
l
t
z
t
S
t
l
t
z
t
D
t
dt
t
l
t
z
t
d
E
−
=
, (3.3.1)
0
)
0
(
,
0
)
(
=
dt
t
d
,
where
dt
d
- is the speed of change of firm’s financial policy in case of
misbalances between effective demand for money and its accepted supply;
dt
t
d
)
(
- are
the changes of multiplier in relation to this misbalance.
- 234 -